532
FNUS22 KWNS 011931
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE ACCELERATED COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ELEVATED RISK AREA. WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW RH TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BETWEEN 25-35
PERCENT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ND. IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
WY AND NORTHWESTERN SD, A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH RH BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT BEFORE
RISING AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER, THE DRIEST AIR AND STRONGER
WINDS DO NOT OVERLAP, PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
(GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) ARE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
IN FL, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR A BROADER REGION OF SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
AND RH OF LESS THAN 35 PERCENT. AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE
WILL PHASE WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, CULTIVATING AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS COASTLINE. A STRONG 30-50 KT 700-850 MB JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL FL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW, YET EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING MID/LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE INCOMING FRONT MAY PREVENT DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER, IN
SPORADIC AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WIND GUSTS OF UP
TO 30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL FL COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
EXACERBATING ANY NEW/EXISTING FIRES. WETTING RAINFALL BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PROVIDE RELIEF TO THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/01/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0211 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN US
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT OVER PARTS OF FL. TO THE WEST OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS/MT.
..FL
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
THAN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US DEEPENS AND FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. SURFACE GUSTS OF 10-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AMID RH
BELOW 35%. AREA FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH LITTLE RECENT RAINFALL
AND ERC VALUES ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE. FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME LIGHT RAINFALL POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROADER EASTERN US TROUGH, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT
SOUTHERN CANADA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT. WITH LITTLE SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE, AFTERNOON RH
VALUES BELOW 20% ARE LIKELY. COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS, THE DRY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ND, NORTHWESTERN SD AND SOUTHEASTERN
MT, WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN MINIMAL AND FUELS REMAIN DRY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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