622
ACUS11 KWNS 020903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020903
FLZ000-021100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND FL BIG BEND
REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020903Z - 021100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME UPTICK IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN.
DISCUSSION...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH EARLY-MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST LA TO NEAR COASTAL PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. INLAND
AREAS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ARE STILL NORTH OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF THE ONGOING DEEPER CONVECTION
BEING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH
THE MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION MAY TEND TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, MUCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR/ABOVE
500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT
STORM ORGANIZATION, AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH
NEAR-COASTAL AREAS, WITH RELATIVELY STRONG 3-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
OBSERVED AT KAAF SUPPORTING THIS POSSIBILITY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO COULD EVOLVE WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTION
CAN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST.
GIVEN THE CURRENT MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT,
SHORT-TERM WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE BIG BEND AND NORTH FL LATER THIS MORNING, WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 05/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 30078558 30228446 30148378 29978345 29708365 29728416
29628452 29568484 29468514 29488551 30078558
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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