890
ACUS01 KWNS 021217
SWODY1
SPC AC 021216
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS REGION IS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. STRONGER ASCENT AND MODEST BUOYANCY IS FAVORING DEEPER
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH.
UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN FAIRLY TRANSIENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING FROM A
COMBINATION OF MODEST BUOYANCY, BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
AND ELEVATED STORM STRUCTURES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN STORM
ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
AUGMENTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THIS BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND LONGER OVERALL UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE,
WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE OVER THE NORTHWEST FL
VICINITY AND A SMALL 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY WAS DELINEATED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
THIS AREA WAS ALSO ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD #0635.
..MOSIER/DEAN.. 05/02/2026
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