802
FNUS22 KWNS 021730
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
SLIGHT EXPANSIONS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED RISK AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT GUIDANCE DEPICTING A BROADER
OVERLAP OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOCALIZED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN POCKETS OF DRY FUELS THAT
HAVE NOT RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL NOR TRANSITIONED TO GREEN UP.
NOTABLY, A VERY SMALL REGION OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE,
EASTERN OK PANHANDLE, AND NORTHWESTERN OK HAVE NOT SEEN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST 30 DAYS WITH MINIMAL (IF ANY) TRANSITION
TO GREEN UP WHERE HIGH FUEL LOADING EXISTS. HOWEVER, INCREASING HIGH
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE
VERY LOCALIZED FIRE ENVIRONMENT.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 05/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0150 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
SPLIT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE US SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW IS ABSORBED BY THE
STRENGTHENING SUB TROPICAL JET. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WHERE ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN US SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
AN ASSOCIATED LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PROMOTING DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT TIED TO THE
LOW. GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH RH BELOW 30%.
WIDESPREAD DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER A DRY FUELSCAPE SHOULD
PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK
AND THE TX PANHANDLES SUNDAY BENEATH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH FEW CLOUDS, AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO BELOW 20% NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME
LOCALIZED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, SEASONABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL/GREEN UP HAVE TEMPERED FUELS SUCH THAT
WIDESPREAD FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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