313
ACUS11 KWNS 021757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021757
FLZ000-021930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 183...
VALID 021757Z - 021930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 183 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 183.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF HAS PRODUCED A FEW MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH
RANGE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. CONTINUED INSOLATION AMID SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F IS YIELDING 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THIS LINE. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50+ KTS (PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION, WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
THE COLD FRONT FAVORING A LINEAR STORM MODE. THE PRESENCE OF SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR (EVIDENT IN RECENT TPA/SRQ ACARS PROFILES) AS WELL
AS INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE LARGELY
VEERED SURFACE WINDS, A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODESTLY-FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THE GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT
ATTAIN A MORE FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION GIVEN GENERALLY
WESTERLY SHEAR VECTORS. SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS, ESPECIALLY ANY PERSISTENT,
MORE-DISCRETE UPDRAFTS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
..CHALMERS.. 05/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28788275 29458181 29648141 29648104 29358087 28528044
28228041 27858074 27628142 27338236 27458282 27918296
28788275
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page