526
ACUS01 KWNS 021955
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK WAS TO TRIM THUNDER AND SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WHERE STORMS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION, PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. CATEGORY
1/MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AHEAD OF A BROKEN
BAND OF STORMS. HERE, AN ADEQUATE OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS TO SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026/
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA
AT MIDDAY, A LINE OF GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING STORMS EXTENDS
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
NEARBY GULF, WITH ADDITIONAL OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ABOUT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND AND FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS INLAND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NEAR-70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
MORE-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LINE, POTENTIALLY
FOCUSING ALONG THE EAST COAST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST PROBABLE
SEVERE HAZARD AS LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS FURTHER STRENGTHEN, ALBEIT WITH
A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL VEERING OVER TIME. EVEN SO, A TORNADO OR
TWO COULD OCCUR ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.
..WESTERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
INFLUENCED BY UPPER-JET EXIT REGION AND THE PROMINENT TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON/CALIFORNIA, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR, THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
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