035
ACUS01 KWNS 040042
SWODY1
SPC AC 040040
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2026
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOW MODEST AIR MASS
MODIFICATION INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST HOUR. A WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED, ROOTED LARGELY IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER, WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES
OF HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND.
LOW TOP CONVECTION WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD,
WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GUSTS 50-60 MPH. THESE HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO DRIER AIR. OCCASIONAL STRONGER
GUSTS MAY CONTINUE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
..THORNTON.. 05/04/2026
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