383
ACUS11 KWNS 052152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052152
ARZ000-OKZ000-052345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 052152Z - 052345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM
NEAR THE ARKANSAS-MISSOURI STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT IN FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA, NEAR WHICH A CELL HAS RECENTLY INITIATED. SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR, AND THAT ADDITIONAL CELLS WILL DEVELOP. THE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWP AT FORT SMITH HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 70
KNOTS, WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 375 M2/S2. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE AND
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS.
..BROYLES/HART.. 05/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35269478 35659461 35999379 36229217 36229162 36149111
35969088 35589077 35119078 34859109 34729145 34659193
34639358 34729441 34999474 35269478
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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