705
ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
..SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SC
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHEAST LA THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD MOVING
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ARCING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL AND JUST
OFF THE GULF COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SEASONALLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S,
SUPPORTING MLCAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THE FRONT, INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING
CONVECTION AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN DEEP-LAYER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND POOR FRONTAL CONVERGENCE, CLUSTERS AND
LINEAR SEGMENTS ARE MOST PROBABLE. GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW,
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPEED SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KILOMETERS AND 0-1 SRH UP TO 150 M2/S2 COULD
ALSO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO, BUT STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
..LEITMAN.. 05/06/2026
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