079
ACUS11 KWNS 060554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060554
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-060800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FROM SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 060554Z - 060800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...GENERALLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK INTO AR AND WESTERN
TN. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF A
SOUTHWARD-SAGGING COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT, WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE STORMS HAVE
STRUGGLED THUS FAR, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL
OR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER COULD DEVELOP WITH TIME, POSING A
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS.
STORMS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK, TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. WHILE THIS CONVECTION MAY TEND TO REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY, THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORM TO EVOLVE
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT BEFORE CONVECTION IS UNDERCUT. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE, IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND
DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 05/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
OUN...
LAT...LON 34399607 34789495 35129230 35928957 36008834 35828792
35518761 35108751 34658781 34458815 33889073 33749188
33609261 33379352 33079459 33629569 33749601 34399607
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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