711
ACUS01 KWNS 061950
SWODY1
SPC AC 061948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2026
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA BEFORE A SHIFT TO A MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND RISK
INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST UPDATE WAS A REDUCTION IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS THE EARLY STAGES OF DEEPENING CONVECTION ACROSS FAR EASTERN TX
INTO CENTRAL LA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN (PER 18Z
RAOBS). THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AMID FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ERODE LINGERING MLCIN. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR (SAMPLED IN
REGIONAL VWPS AND 18 UTC RAOBS) SHOULD MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MS WHERE CONVECTION ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL
LA WILL LIKELY TRACK AND INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
(WHERE STP VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 BY LATE AFTERNOON) PRIOR TO
UNDERCUTTING BY THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
..MOORE.. 05/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1125 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2026/
..TX/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
A CORRIDOR OF STRONG MID TO HIGH-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDS FROM TX INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A LARGER-SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. MORNING SURFACE MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX THROUGH NORTHERN MS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WITH LITTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A MOIST AIRMASS MAINTAINED BY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL YIELD SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S TO
LOWER TO MID 70S DEG F SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OWING TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (REFERENCE THE 16 G/KG
LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS FROM THE 12 UTC LAKE CHARLES AND
SLIDELL, LA RAOBS), HEATING AND PERSISTENT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND YIELD
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE/PW WILL SUPPORT
STRONG BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT (I.E. 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE) OVER
LA/MS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELLS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING GUSTS, AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE TORNADO RISK IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY 850-MB FLOW
STRENGTHENS FROM 25 KT TO 35-40 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WHETHER
OR NOT STORMS CAN REALIZE THIS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
LARGELY BE A FUNCTION OF STORM MODE. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO CLUSTER AND TO GROW UPSCALE, WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, AND THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR STORMS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED RISK FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GA AND UPSTATE
SC LATE TONIGHT.
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