498
ACUS02 KWNS 070520
SWODY2
SPC AC 070518
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
INTO MISSOURI. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS THE MID-MS, OH AND TN VALLEYS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE TX
COAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS TX, THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST, BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE
OH VALLEY TO SOUTHERN AR AND NORTH TX BY SATURDAY MORNING.
..KS/OK/MO/AR
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
NEVERTHELESS, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GREATER THAN 35 KT WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELONGATED/STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS,
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE, WHERE THERE IS
STRONGER HEATING, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND
EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
MO/AR.
..TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS TX. EARLY DAY THUNDERSTORMS, SHOWERS, AND
CLOUDINESS ARE POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CAPPING AND INITIALLY WEAK FORCING AND MODEST
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY, BUT SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY EVENING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION, RESULTING IN INCREASING FORCING
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. SOME STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO COULD APPROACH THE MIDDLE/LOWER RIO GRANDE
IN TX, AND IF THEY CAN BE MAINTAINED, POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 05/07/2026
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