442
ACUS48 KWNS 070730
SWOD48
SPC AC 070728
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2026
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
4-8/SUN-THU PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 5/MON. STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME,
WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX AND GULF COAST
STATES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS, BUT COULD BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO PARTS OF TX AND THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL.
BY DAY 6/TUE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT GLACES THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH DAY 7/WED, AND SOME INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO CAPPING.
ADDITIONALLY, QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN IS UNCERTAIN WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY 4-8/SUN-THU PERIOD.
..LEITMAN.. 05/07/2026
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