159
ACUS11 KWNS 071234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071234
TXZ000-071430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071234Z - 071430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH
MID MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED EAST OF DEL
RIO, WITH OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF EDWARDS AND
VAL VERDE COUNTIES. WHILE THE REGION IS POST-FRONTAL, RICH MOISTURE
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES (AS OBSERVED ON THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING) IS RESULTING IN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG ELEVATED BUOYANCY. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (ALSO NOTED ON THE 12Z DRT
SOUNDING) ARE CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST, CELL
MATURATION AND STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THIS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH. REGARDLESS OF WATCH ISSUANCE, STORMS
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 05/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29730187 30680145 30800041 30720005 30509969 29789938
29029943 28599984 28480030 28740083 29010093 29730187
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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