923
ACUS11 KWNS 071942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071942
NCZ000-SCZ000-072145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071942Z - 072145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A RISK FOR ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ANALYZED NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE, NC, BEFORE TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL GA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WHERE CLEARING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S F. ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-60S F RANGE, THIS IS SUPPORTING WEAK BUOYANCY OF AROUND 250-500
J/KG MLCAPE (PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS), WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INSTABILITY TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECTATION IS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS SAMPLED BY
THE 12Z GSO/RNK OBSERVED SOUNDINGS) ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE
BUOYANCY, STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CONTRIBUTING TO 60+ KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZATION OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP. LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS (MAINLY IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE) AND SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED GIVEN
THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS; HOWEVER, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED OWING TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
THUS, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 05/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 36048130 36068055 35878003 35597936 35347877 35087834
34857817 34577829 34297875 34107946 34078022 34138091
34288159 34608225 35048224 35608179 36048130
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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