900
ACUS01 KWNS 071950
SWODY1
SPC AC 071948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2026
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS.
..20Z UPDATE
MRMS VIL HAS DEPICTED A WEAKENING TREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FL OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AS CONVECTION
MIGRATES EAST INTO A MORE DEEPLY MIXED/DRIER AIR MASS. A DOWNSTREAM
18 UTC SOUNDING FROM JAX SAMPLED DIMINISHED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASED INHIBITION AS WELL, CASTING DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION ACROSS NORTH FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON, 15% WIND AND 5% TORNADO RISK PROBABILITIES WERE REMOVED,
THOUGH RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO GA AND THE
CAROLINAS, GRADUAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S AMID LOW/MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THIS IS SUPPORTING
MODEST MLCAPE VALUES (500 J/KG OR LESS) WITHIN AN OTHERWISE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, OPTED TO MAINTAIN LOW-END
WIND PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS.
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TX, ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SIMILAR
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE TRANSIENT STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESIDUAL MUCAPE SAMPLED BY
REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS, THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS COUPLED WITH
NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MINIMAL UPDRAFT/UH SIGNAL IN RECENT
CAM GUIDANCE LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE 5% HAIL
PROBABILITIES.
..MOORE.. 05/07/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1120 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2026/
..FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE OVER THE MID SOUTH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST AND REACH THE NC OUTER BANKS BY MID EVENING. LATE MORNING
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRAPED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST. A MOIST AND FULLY MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND WITH
NOTABLY DRIER AIR OVER INTERIOR NORTH FL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST, MODERATELY UNSTABLE, AND STRONGLY SHEARED (50+ KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR) ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE VICINITY THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE BANDS WILL POTENTIALLY BE
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO BEFORE THIS
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS-BUOYANT REGIME
FARTHER EAST OF NORTH FL.
..CAROLINAS
SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER AND MODEST HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY PRIOR TO THE FRONT CLEARING THE COAST
LATER TODAY. WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK (I.E., LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL).
HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF DEEPER UPDRAFTS TO ORGANIZE
WITHIN A REGION WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS.
..EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS INTERMITTENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR (I.E.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 50 TO 60 KT) AND 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE MAY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH AND DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
VERY LOW THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DESPITE A MODIFYING AND
MORE MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE TRIMMED HAIL PROBABILITIES OVER THIS
REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF STORM COVERAGE IN THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
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