923
ACUS02 KWNS 080603
SWODY2
SPC AC 080601
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST ALONG
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
AT MID-LEVELS, CYCLONICALLY-ORIENTED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY. WITHIN THE FLOW, A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DRYLINE SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR A TRIPLE POINT
AND SURFACE LOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F ACROSS MOST OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BECOME MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, WHICH
SHOULD ENABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MULTIPLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS.
THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAP
FORECASTS SOUNDINGS AT 00Z EAST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR ALTUS HAVE 0-6
KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 DEGREES F. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING, AS CONVECTION
MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
..GULF COAST REGION
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
GULF COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WARM-ADVECTION RELATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
DURING THE DAY. THESE STORMS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MARGINAL
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
COAST, ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 05/08/2026
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