493
ACUS11 KWNS 081410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081410
MSZ000-LAZ000-081645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081410Z - 081645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, INCLUDING CELLS
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, IS POSSIBLE
INTO MIDDAY. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NEEDED,
BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT, ONGOING VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE LEADING OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN, BENEATH A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID-TROPOPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION (PARTICULARLY AROUND 700 MB), WHICH APPEARS TO
DEMARCATE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR. THIS IS BASED ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF A
STALLED WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST
REGION.
SUPPORTING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE PROBABLY CHARACTERIZED BY A
LOADED-GUN TYPE STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO THAT SAMPLED IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM SLIDELL, LA, INCLUDING SIZABLE CAPE WITHIN AND ABOVE
THE MIXED-PHASE LAYER, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CLOUD-BEARING LAYER
SHEAR.
AT THIS TIME, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LONG STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST, AS THE RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS MODEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z. CONVECTION
IS ALREADY SHOW SIGNS OF SUBSTANTIVE UPSCALE GROWTH. HOWEVER, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT STRONG CONVECTIVE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL MAY BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. IT MIGHT NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER SURFACE
GUSTS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE COMMON NEAR ACTIVITY, BUT THIS
REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN.
..KERR/SMITH.. 05/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31019348 31929198 31358851 30338943 30749126 31019234
31019348
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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