269
ACUS11 KWNS 081906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081906
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-082100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081906Z - 082100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE 21Z (4 PM CDT).
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING
CUMULUS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
CONTINUED INSOLATION AMID MODEST MOISTURE RETURN (TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S) IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE PRESENT PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ANALYZED OVER WESTERN KANSAS, THIS CONTINUED HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCRETE INITIATION AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40+ KTS WILL
SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS, WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (7.5-8+ C/KM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND THE 18Z DDC/AMA
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS). STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYERS (SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20+ F) WILL ALSO
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND DEVELOPMENT/CONSOLIDATION OF COLD
POOLS. THIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE
LINEAR CLUSTERS (AND AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE SEVERE WIND
THREAT) INTO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED BEFORE 21Z (4 PM CDT).
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 05/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36019893 36609811 37619640 37869588 37859532 37679491
37329459 36839452 36379455 35869480 35279550 34909606
34319720 34089808 34089885 34479924 34889935 35479930
36019893
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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