041
ACUS11 KWNS 081931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081930
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-082200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081930Z - 082200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
INTENSIFY WHILE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA VICINITY BY 6-7 PM EDT. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT
THIS WILL REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH, BUT TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SUBTLE, LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MODERATELY STRONG, BROADLY CONFLUENT
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LEAD WAVE,
FORCING FOR ASCENT, FOCUSED WITHIN LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION, HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY VIGOROUS STORM OCCASIONALLY
EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. THIS HAS RECENTLY PROPAGATED INTO
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH AN EASTERLY MEAN MOTION AROUND
35 KT, ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SMALL HAIL, BASED ON MESH DATA, AND
PROBABLY LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.
THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE, WITH
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RECENT DESTABILIZATION ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, IF FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN THIS CELL, THERE DOES APPEAR POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
ACQUIRE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE UPDRAFT INFLOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TOWARD 22-23Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO
INTENSIFICATION SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND.
..KERR/SMITH.. 05/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30828651 31118656 31088504 31048436 30358464 30488581
30548663 30828651
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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