587
ACUS01 KWNS 082000
SWODY1
SPC AC 081959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE SPARSE
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OZARKS, CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS, AND THE GULF COAST STATES.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
..NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN AL/GA
5% WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES WERE BOTH EXPANDED ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL AND GA
AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CELL HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF PERIOD INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE LEVELS, AND A DOWNSTREAM
18Z JAX SOUNDING SAMPLED ADEQUATE BUOYANCY WITHIN A MUCAPE GRADIENT
FOR STORM MAINTENANCE, AS WELL AS VERY STRONG (57 KNOT) EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR THAT MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON (SEE MCD #671 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).
..SOUTHERN MS/AL
MINOR EXPANSIONS OF THE 5% HAIL/WIND CONTOURS WERE MADE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN LA WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE 09-12 UTC PERIOD, AND MAY POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS DAMAGING GUSTS. WHILE CLUSTERED STORM MODES WILL LIKELY
MODULATE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT, SUFFICIENT MUCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS.
..OKLAHOMA
THE EARLY STAGES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OK WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD NOTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT (SEE MCD # 670 FOR ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM DETAILS). RECENT HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS (NOTABLY RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR) COMPARE REASONABLY WELL THESE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TO
A RECENT 19 UTC OUN RAOB. THIS LENDS REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTH/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH MID-EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AND WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE
SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER RISK (NAMELY 30% HAIL)
PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER, SLIGHT EXPANSIONS OF THE 5% AND INTENSITY
LEVEL 1 HAIL CONTOURS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.
..MOORE.. 05/08/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1126 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026/
..CENTRAL PLAINS
VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND A
MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TX. THESE
CLOUDS GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GPS PW OF
RICHER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN KS THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KS AND OK BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND 50S DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE INITIAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY EVOLVING INTO A BAND OF STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EARLY BEFORE COALESCING COLD POOLS
PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FAVOR ANCHORING UPDRAFTS ON THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT
OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. SEVERE GUSTS ALONG WITH SOME
LINGERING HAIL RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT DIMINISH IN OVERALL MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF SEVERE AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO NORTH TX AND THE ARKLATEX.
..CENTRAL GULF COAST
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING
ALONG/NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST TX
ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO NORTH FL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT, WITH A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE CELLS EXPECTED. A MIX OF HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
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