714
ACUS11 KWNS 082002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082001
MOZ000-KSZ000-082200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082001Z - 082200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A WEAK DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, DIURNAL HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-70S F, WITH SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER-40S TO NEAR 50 F. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER
(UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F) WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-50S TO THE NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY OWING TO MORE LIMITED INSOLATION/MIXING. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK HEATING OF
THIS COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS NORTH OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY (250-750 J/KG MLCAPE) LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL, EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-45+ KTS AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A
SUPERCELL STORM MODE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE
RISK REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER, MORE
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO LIMIT AVAILABLE BUOYANCY.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE SHOULD A STORM PERSIST
ACROSS THIS AREA, HOWEVER, OWING TO STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTATION FOR
LIMITED SEVERE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE, WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 05/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37989496 38579468 39069355 39299274 39259179 39129122
38859080 38529059 38229052 37859075 37539117 37329166
37219220 37229293 37249374 37329437 37479484 37989496
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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