144
ACUS11 KWNS 082008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082007
FLZ000-082200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082007Z - 082200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE NEAR AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE GAINESVILLE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH 6-7 PM
EDT. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT, IT IS NOT
CERTAIN A WATCH IS NEEDED, BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING AND INTENSIFYING ALONG A
REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GAINESVILLE,
WHERE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS ERODING WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION AND
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT. MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW APPEARS IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE, BENEATH MODERATE TO
STRONG WESTERLY MID TO UPPER FLOW. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK, BUT PROFILES APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO ORGANIZING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, IT PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS. RIGHTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE MIGHT ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO.
..KERR/SMITH.. 05/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...
LAT...LON 29818236 29828169 29488124 29328162 29558231 29818236
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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