410
ACUS11 KWNS 090220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090219
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090219Z - 090415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL AND EVENTUALLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM, THOUGH TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EVOLVING FROM FAR NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN AR, MOSTLY AIDED BY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE SHV 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED AROUND 7
C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER, WHICH IS YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY, COUPLED WITH A LONG/MOSTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (AROUND 40
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR), MAY PROMOTE A COUPLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL -- ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR TERM.
WITH TIME, AN INCREASE IN POSITIVE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND ROOT IN THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER (POSING
AN INCREASING DAMAGING-WIND RISK), FAIRLY NEBULOUS/UNFOCUSED FORCING
FOR ASCENT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. THEREFORE, A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM, THOUGH CONVECTIVE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 05/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33009560 33389540 33619498 33839429 33869336 33749273
33369197 32959189 32479213 32199279 32109432 32219513
32409554 32739570 33009560
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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