317
ACUS11 KWNS 091946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091946
LAZ000-TXZ000-092145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST/COASTAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091946Z - 092145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ONGOING
ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK/REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS, WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOTED NEAR THE AUSTIN METRO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY (2000-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS).
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (AS SAMPLED
BY THE POE/LCH VAD PROFILES) IS CONTRIBUTING TO 40-50+ KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS; HOWEVER, THIS
GREATER SHEAR IS LARGELY DISPLACED TOWARDS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA (WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS) WITH
MUCH WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER WEST. SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP/PERSIST WITHIN THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER EAST,
THE RESULTANT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
INFILTRATING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR (EVIDENT ON LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) WILL ALSO SUPPORT GREATER EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL
WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS (DCAPE OF 900-1100 J/KG PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS).
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIALLY UNFAVORABLE SPATIAL OVERLAP
OF BETTER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
YIELD A VERY NARROW WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH VEERING WINDS
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TEMPERING
DEVELOPMENT/SEVERE RISK. THUS, WHILE THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME OWING TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE OF SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN THIS BETTER
ENVIRONMENT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 05/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30509369 30189367 29849375 29639394 29459442 29449481
29449534 29539613 29649677 29899720 30189764 30409774
30589760 30709731 30919656 31009614 31079577 31139546
31129495 31009426 30769383 30509369
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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