501
ACUS11 KWNS 092033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092032
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 092032Z - 092130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
FROM THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A SUBTLE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO,
WITH MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EAST
OF A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES, WESTERN OKLAHOMA,
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A DEVELOPING CU FIELD IS EVIDENT ACROSS THIS
REGION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING 500-1500+ J/KG MLCAPE AMID ERODING
INHIBITION. INTENSIFICATION OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS GREATER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ARE BOTH LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS, WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THIS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS, AND DCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 05/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33429955 33900035 34310053 34880069 35630086 36200080
36640071 36960029 37139960 36999882 36579852 35569840
34889840 34479848 33909866 33459897 33429955
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page