936
ACUS11 KWNS 100222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100221
OKZ000-TXZ000-100415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194...
VALID 100221Z - 100415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL REMAINS
POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS, A NEW WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS WHICH PRODUCED LARGE HAIL HAVE
DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL OK, THOUGH STILL CAPABLE OF HAIL AND SEVERE
GUSTS. LOSS OF HEATING / INCREASING INHIBITION ARE NEGATIVELY
IMPACTING THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTEND TOWARD THE RED RIVER, WITH PWAT OF 1.00-1.25".
GIVEN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THIS MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY
COUNTERACT THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. EVEN
IF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY, THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUSTAIN THE
ONGOING CELLS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM SEVERE GUSTS OR HAIL
OVER 1.00".
TO THE NORTH, A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF NORTHWEST OK, WHERE A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH WAS MEASURED AT KAVK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE AS IT TRANSLATES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
THROUGH CENTRAL OK. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS FROM WESTERN
THROUGH SOUTHERN OK, DEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHWEST FLANKS ARE
PREFERRED.
..JEWELL.. 05/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35509993 35989970 36129921 36379885 36729865 36689820
36389802 36009779 35379720 35009660 34709599 34339578
34139590 33949609 33839651 33909777 34579936 34939975
35509993
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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