264
FNUS22 KWNS 100703
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST, A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 60-70-KT JET STREAK
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS MT INTO ND DURING PEAK HEATING. AT THE
SAME TIME, A RELATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM SK INTO MB
CANADA, WHILE A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS -- BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A SURFACE
FRONT. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MT
INTO WEST-CENTRAL ND.
..NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL PROMOTE
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S TEMPERATURES AND
15-25 PERCENT RH ARE EXPECTED. OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A
COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) AMID 20-25
PERCENT RH. THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RH
ATOP CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN MT INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ND -- WHERE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTH, A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR 15 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH
10-15 PERCENT RH. GIVEN RECEPTIVE FUELS HERE AS WELL, ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
INCREASING RH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
..WEINMAN.. 05/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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