195
ACUS48 KWNS 100844
SWOD48
SPC AC 100842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 TO FRIDAY/DAY 6
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY AMPLIFIED. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
ON THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
THE GREAT PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THIS INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A CAP WILL
MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT COULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT THIS
WOULD MATERIALIZE ONLY IF STORMS CAN INITIATE IN A SOMEWHAT CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.
..SATURDAY/DAY 7 AND SUNDAY/DAY 8
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF THIS AIRMASS. HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIMITED AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE
MESOSCALE-DRIVEN. FOR THIS REASON, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW OVER THE
WEEKEND CONCERNING ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 05/10/2026
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