116
ACUS02 KWNS 101722
SWODY2
SPC AC 101720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
.. OVERVIEW
AS A WESTERN MIDLEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES, A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL INTERACT WITH THE TRAILING PORTION
OF A SURFACE FRONT ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW
THAT WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
.. SOUTHEAST US
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER-70FS TO LOW-80FS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER-60FS TO LOW-70FS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING.
STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR, TALL, SKINNY BUOYANCY PROFILES, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND THREAT. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF HEATING OF
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MARGINAL HAIL RISK MAY ALSO
DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A CONCENTRATION OF WIND AND HAIL
OCCURRENCE WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT INTERSECTS ANY INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA, AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA.
FARTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LESS
CERTAIN. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SAGGING FRONT, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE 20260510/12Z HREF GUIDANCE AS TO THE
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY, WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WETTER SOLUTIONS. A SIMILAR KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL EXIST HERE AS FARTHER EAST, SUPPORTING PRIMARILY A MARGINAL
WIND THREAT.
..MARSH.. 05/10/2026
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