258
ACUS11 KWNS 101725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101724
FLZ000-GAZ000-101900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101724Z - 101900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...THE 12Z JAX/TBW OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DIURNAL
HEATING HAS SINCE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RECENT
ACARS PROFILES FROM TPA. EXPECTATION IS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA
BREEZE. PWATS ACROSS THE REGION OF 1.75+ INCHES WILL PROMOTE WATER
LOADED DOWNDRAFTS AND A RISK OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO SUPPORTING
40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIALLY
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR SMALL TO
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THIS
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPERED WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT OWING TO
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER SHEAR (30-35 KTS) ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME OWING TO THE EXPECTED LIMITED MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE
RISK, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 05/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 30018270 30308240 30508165 30538131 30488121 30238112
29878104 29318083 28808055 28508037 28278038 28028035
27678020 27188001 27037995 26817998 26698016 26748040
26898066 27018084 27098104 27268124 27508146 27878185
28238214 28428231 28648239 29018251 29328262 29658277
29878275 30018270
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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