252
FNUS22 KWNS 101936
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
..PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK WERE MADE. A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND ATTENDANT 60-70 KNOT JET MAX ENTERS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND
EVOLVING COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO UPPER MIDWEST BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COLLOCATED WITH
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MT AND WESTERN
ND. THESE WINDS ALIGNED WITH RH MINIMA OF 15-25% WILL SUPPORT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AMID VERY DRY FUELS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDING WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
INTO WESTERN ND SURROUNDING THE HIGHER MAGNITUDE WIND CORRIDOR.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ND AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH INTO NORTHERN PLAINS,
ALTHOUGH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT BROADER DESTABILIZATION
AND THUS LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED DRYING AMID DEEP LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD AND NORTHERN NE.
WEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND RH AS LOW AS 10% WILL PROMOTE
SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AMID RECEPTIVE
FUELS MONDAY.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0202 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST, A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 60-70-KT JET STREAK
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS MT INTO ND DURING PEAK HEATING. AT THE
SAME TIME, A RELATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM SK INTO MB
CANADA, WHILE A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS -- BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A SURFACE
FRONT. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MT
INTO WEST-CENTRAL ND.
..NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL PROMOTE
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S TEMPERATURES AND
15-25 PERCENT RH ARE EXPECTED. OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A
COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) AMID 20-25
PERCENT RH. THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RH
ATOP CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN MT INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ND -- WHERE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTH, A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR 15 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH
10-15 PERCENT RH. GIVEN RECEPTIVE FUELS HERE AS WELL, ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
INCREASING RH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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