349
ACUS11 KWNS 102302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102301
LAZ000-TXZ000-110030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102301Z - 110030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WEST/EAST-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWESTERN LA -- WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO STRENGTHEN. THE EARLIER 18Z LCH SOUNDING SAMPLED STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A WARM/MOIST PBL -- CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND
2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS BUOYANCY AND AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH/STRONG VENTING ALOFT -- EVIDENT BY EASTWARD EXPANDING
ANVILS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY -- WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A
COUPLE ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ANY STORMS
THAT CAN MATURE/INTENSIFY WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MATURE OWING TO
MIDLEVEL DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.
A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEAR TERM, THOUGH
SEVERE STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TX TONIGHT -- AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED AS NEEDED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 05/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29869408 29739516 29669609 29889652 30299663 30709646
30919614 31009552 31039435 30939321 30789254 30519190
30349169 30129164 29899191 29819245 29869408
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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