023
ACUS01 KWNS 110031
SWODY1
SPC AC 110030
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL (SOME 2+ INCHES) AND NUMEROUS SEVERE/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS (ISOLATED 75+ MPH) ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
..CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS COAST AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AS OF 00:15Z, VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED AN HP SUPERCELL
GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO A LARGER-SCALE BOWING COMPLEX OVER
MCCULLOCH, SAN SABA, AND MASON COUNTIES WITH A SEPARATE SUPERCELL
COMPLEX OVER CORYELL COUNTY, WHICH RECENTLY PRODUCED HAIL UP TO FOUR
INCHES IN DIAMETER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM AND MOIST INFLOW AIR MASS WITH
ESTIMATED MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ISN'T
PARTICULARLY STRONG, THE OBSERVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INDICATE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM REGIMES MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE ALONG A COMMON COLD POOL, WITH A
BROADER-SCALE MCS ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
75 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BOWING COMPLEX. THE VERY
LARGE HAIL (> 2") THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITH THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HAIL SIZES SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS CONVECTION TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF AN OUTFLOW
DOMINANT SYSTEM.
THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TX COAST AND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS OWING TO GRADUAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
..MEAD.. 05/11/2026
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