361
ACUS02 KWNS 110555
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS,
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
..CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES
AT MID-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMES MORE FOCUSED. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD AN
INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE INTO THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR MOSTLY IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME STEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WHERE A
LOCALLY GREATER HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/11/2026
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