164
FNUS21 KWNS 110651
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WEST, A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 70-KT WESTERLY
JET STREAK WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS MT AND ND DURING PEAK
HEATING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH, STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. HERE,
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH --
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S AND
20-25 PERCENT RH. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RH REDUCTIONS,
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS (WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH). THE GREATEST OVERLAP
OF THESE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ATOP RECEPTIVE FUELS IS
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ND -- WHERE
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE. A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND
SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL POST-FRONTAL RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND 15-20 PERCENT RH. THESE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS, GIVEN CRITICALLY DRY FUELS HERE AS WELL.
..WEINMAN.. 05/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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