848
FNUS21 KWNS 111645
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT UNDER A 60-70 KNOT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TODAY. STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THIS STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
DAY. RH IS TRENDING LOWER WITH POTENTIAL FOR BROADER INSTANCES OF
20-25% BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF ND AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN
TODAY.
FARTHER WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS INCLUDING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON RH OF 15-25% AND DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MT INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ND. A SLIGHT EASTWARD EXPANSION OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS FURTHER INTO
ND WAS MADE BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND FORECAST
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0151 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WEST, A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 70-KT WESTERLY
JET STREAK WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS MT AND ND DURING PEAK
HEATING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING.
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH, STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. HERE,
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TRAJECTORIES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH --
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S AND
20-25 PERCENT RH. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RH REDUCTIONS,
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS (WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH). THE GREATEST OVERLAP
OF THESE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ATOP RECEPTIVE FUELS IS
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO WEST-CENTRAL ND -- WHERE
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE. A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND
SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL POST-FRONTAL RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND 15-20 PERCENT RH. THESE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS, GIVEN CRITICALLY DRY FUELS HERE AS WELL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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