412
ACUS11 KWNS 111715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111714
FLZ000-111915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111714Z - 111915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (AS
SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TBW OBSERVED SOUNDING) IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING MLCAPE RANGING FROM
AROUND 1500 J/KG TO 2500+ J/KG. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS
SUPPORTING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY, A
COMBINATION OF MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES, WATER LOADING WILL
PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE, WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEAWARD OF THE
EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT GREATER BUOYANCY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE
FORECAST LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE RISK, BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 05/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 26218001 26198028 26318064 26748103 28348157 28868176
29238188 29598198 29898196 30048189 30178167 30178141
30048121 29728105 29048069 28608041 28328045 27878034
27248004 26907993 26437990 26218001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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