468
ACUS11 KWNS 111938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111938
MSZ000-LAZ000-112115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...2SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111938Z - 112115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...IN ADVANCE OF A REMNANT MCV AND THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EAST TX, ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN LA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST LA,
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT
INTO SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY WARMED SLOWLY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT
CLOUDS, BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AT FIRST GLANCE, REGIONAL VWPS SHOW VERY WEAK FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL. THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE/PERSISTENT STORMS
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND LIMITED TO ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITH
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND/OR MELTING OF SMALL HAIL.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 05/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31038870 30858896 30678986 30599059 30499131 30559165
30749177 30909176 31119121 31239037 31328956 31398902
31308877 31038870
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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