155
FNUS21 KWNS 121613
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VALID 121700Z - 131200Z
NO CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK WERE NECESSARY. DRY, POST-FRONTAL FLOW IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN
ND/SD. THE LIMITED RH REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON OF 25-30% (LOCALLY
20%) AMID A MIXED FUELSCAPE AS GREEN UP EXPANDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE ROBUST NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0129 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. COASTLINE AS
TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW TRAVERSE THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MT AND AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SURFACE LOW TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES, TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG
DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD A WELL-MIXED
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY.
WHILE RH REDUCTIONS WILL BE MODEST IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
(AROUND 20-30 PERCENT), 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
(LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) AMID VERY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SWATH OF STRONGER SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH (LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH)
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MID-UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
EAST OF A WARMER, DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND ATOP FUELS RECENTLY
TRANSITIONING TO GREEN UP. WHILE RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 25 PERCENT WITHIN THIS REGION, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE IN AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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