166
ACUS03 KWNS 121931
SWODY3
SPC AC 121929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
..CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER EASTERN KS
THURSDAY MORNING OWING TO WARM ADVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CO FRONT RANGE TO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD INVOKING
POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE 60S DEG F IN AN NARROW
TONGUE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN OK AND I-135 IN CENTRAL KS. AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FEATURING STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES (IN
EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM) WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS MAINTAINING A CAP
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS A MODERATELY TO LOCALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPS EAST OF A DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD-MIGRATING IMPULSE WILL ACT TO
ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE 21-00 UTC PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. SEVERE
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND WOULD LIKELY FOCUS IF SMALL CLUSTERING
CAN OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS FORECAST
TO SLIGHTLY VEER AND FAVOR STRENGTHENING WARM-AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY, PERHAPS FACILITATING A LINGERING
RISK FOR WIND/HAIL AND/OR ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSING
AN OVERNIGHT HAIL THREAT.
..SMITH.. 05/12/2026
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