290
ACUS01 KWNS 130056
SWODY1
SPC AC 130054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA, THE GREAT LAKES, AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
.. 01Z UPDATE
ALL LEVEL 1/MARGINAL RISKS ARE REMOVED WITH THIS UPDATE.
.. GREAT LAKES REGION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
MUCAPE PEAKED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 500 J/KG AND HAS BEEN
DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THUS, DESPITE A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE
LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS, INDIANA, AND OHIO.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
.. FLORIDA
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
UNCAPPED, TROPICAL-LIKE ENVIRONMENT, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE MIDLEVEL WAVE CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA OVERNIGHT,
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIMIT ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
.. CENTRAL PLAINS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, DECREASING INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT EVEN LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
.. PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING IT WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
BENEATH MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW, THE
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
UNCONDITIONAL WIND PROBABILITIES TO BE INTRODUCED.
..MARSH.. 05/13/2026
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