498
ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
WITHIN THE FLOW, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A POCKET OF MOIST AIR FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. WITHIN THIS
MOIST AIRMASS, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FURTHER EAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET.
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA
SHOW A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. MLCAPE
IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE WITH 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION, 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THESE TWO AREAS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 05/13/2026
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