343
ACUS11 KWNS 131815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131815
MTZ000-132015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131815Z - 132015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO MUCH
OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MONTANA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON/SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK
BUOYANCY OF 250-750 J/KG MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS INCREASING ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION, EXPECTATION IS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN IDAHO BEFORE SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED, STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
(50-60+ KTS SAMPLED AT 3-4 KM AGL VIA THE MSX VWP) COUPLED WITH
DEEP, DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS (LCLS OF 3-4+ KM) AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS (AND
POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT WIND GUST OR TWO) ACROSS THE REGION. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
THREAT.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 05/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 46961250 47551237 48231212 48621166 48841089 48940991
48910910 48610869 47950855 47200866 46640877 46160906
45800930 45370978 45191022 45051075 44961129 44841193
44801253 44831303 45011329 45291325 45661301 46281273
46961250
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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