067
ACUS03 KWNS 131928
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY.
..LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
MULTIPLE FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT IN
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE IN THE
POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES, FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE MIDWEST OR
MO/CENTRAL MS VALLEYS, FURTHER COMPLICATING THE SEVERE RISK. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NE AND NORTHEASTERN CO. CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT NEAR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH, ENOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT ON AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
BEHIND THE FRONT. HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
FARTHER SOUTH, INTO KS AND WESTERN MO, MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A DRYLINE
AND SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
RANGE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FURTHER EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. LOCATED BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGHS, MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER HERE (20-30 KT AT 500 MB),
SUGGESTING A MESSY STORM MODE, BUT WITH SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR CLUSTERS
THAT DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
NEAR THE DRYLINE AND LEE LOW, FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS INTO
WESTERN OK, DEEP MIXING AND ASCENT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE
DEPTH IS HIGH, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING MODEST BUOYANCY ATOP A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, WEAK 500 MB WINDS
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..LYONS.. 05/13/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page