797
ACUS03 KWNS 140739
SWODY3
SPC AC 140738
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
HAILSTONES UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ON SATURDAY, AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHERE
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS, SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AT
00Z, HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 50 KNOTS, AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
HAILSTONES UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER. BY EARLY EVENING, A 40 TO 50
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME, NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE
0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY INTO THE 300 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP
THIS LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER SOUTH IN THE EARLY EVENING, SUGGESTING
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE. AT THIS TIME, THERE DOES APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES, AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE IF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET PAN OUT. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS.
AT THIS POINT, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL
AND A STRONG TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT SCENARIO THAT WILL PLACE OUT.
DURING THE EVENING, THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SEVERE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY, WHERE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY INCREASING
INTO THE MID 60S F OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS, INDIANA AND OHIO.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 05/14/2026
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