102
ACUS48 KWNS 140903
SWOD48
SPC AC 140901
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN...D5/MON
..DISCUSSION
..SUNDAY/DAY 4 AND MONDAY/DAY 5
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY, AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY, STRONG SURFACE HEATING
IS FORECAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE COULD PEAK IN THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, A BROAD 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY OVER A LARGE AREA. A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE.
ON MONDAY, MODEL FORECASTS EJECT A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A MID-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO ALSO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
AIRMASS NEAR A DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..TUESDAY/DAY 6 TO THURSDAY/DAY 8
ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S., WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S F ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.
..BROYLES.. 05/14/2026
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