058
ACUS11 KWNS 141904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141903
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141903Z - 142100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL BRING A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS (SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DISCUSSION...MOIST MID-LEVELS ATOP DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z DDC
OBSERVED SOUNDING) ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BROAD AREA OF DEEP,
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
WEAK BUOYANCY OF 250-500 J/KG MLCAPE (LOCALLY HIGHER) EXPECTED BY
PEAK HEATING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND A RECENT ACARS PROFILE FROM
AMA INDICATE REMAINING INHIBITION IS ERODING ACROSS THE REGION AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED/BREACHED. LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS, WITH DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION (AND A SUBTLE UPTICK IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY) NOTED FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE.
EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AMID CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WHILE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA PER REGIONAL VWPS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP, DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS (AND POTENTIALLY A FEW SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS) WITH CONVECTION. MODESTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN
THIS ANTICIPATED SEVERE RISK, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
WHILE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY POSE A SIMILAR THREAT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO WEST TEXAS, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MORE LIMITED WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. THUS, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS
LESS LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/GUYER.. 05/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33620430 34560440 35670411 36420377 37570275 37930228
38150174 38250087 38210017 38169978 37929936 37619915
37089916 35899968 35319992 34100055 33460101 32970148
32800188 32660244 32680302 32850358 33250405 33620430
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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