145
ACUS11 KWNS 142040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142039
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-142245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142039Z - 142245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SUBTLE, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY OF 250 TO LOCALLY 500 J/KG MLCAPE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH/GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE DEVELOPING STORMS TO PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DEEP, WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED ACROSS
THE REGION (0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 9+ C/KM AND LCLS OF 3-4 KM PER
LATEST MESOANALYSIS), ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MODESTLY STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ACROSS THIS REGION (AROUND 30-35 KTS) MAY ALSO PROMOTE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED, MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY MORE ROBUST
CORES. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO REMAIN
ISOLATED, HOWEVER, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..CHALMERS/GUYER.. 05/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39600316 39990314 40390297 40870222 41630110 41990057
42100003 41939950 41559915 41219902 40699909 40229934
39839966 39280027 38980078 38820119 38740160 38720231
38900281 39260309 39600316
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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