461
ACUS11 KWNS 142255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142255
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-150030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202...
VALID 142255Z - 150030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-75 MPH WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02 OR 03Z, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER STARTS
TO STABILIZE.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 22:50Z, MOSAIC RADAR DATA SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM ALONG AND SOUTH
OF U.S. 54 IN SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF
STORMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WITHIN A HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. AREA VWPS
INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 30
KT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. NONETHELESS, ACTIVE COLD POOLS AND THE
PRESENCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KS ARE LIKELY TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED, MULTICELLULAR AND PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF
60-75 MPH WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02
OR 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO COOL AND STABILIZE. A
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS EAST OF A GREAT BEND TO PRATT, KS LINE WHERE
WEAK, BUT EXISTENT CONVECTION IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE,
AND A STRONGER CAPPED, BUT MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF STORMS CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE DRYLINE, A POTENTIALLY
LONGER-DURATION SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AS THE
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 05/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...
ABQ...
LAT...LON 34570305 36210309 36990302 37360212 38290129 38810076
39259966 39279805 37689790 37009854 35979935 34509934
33489994 33040026 33000156 33000279 33290303 34570305
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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